IB Predicted Grades Explained: What They Are and How They Work

If you are starting your second IB year and thinking about university applications, predicted grades are about to become very important. They determine whether you get an offer at all, and what conditions that offer carries. Understanding how the process works gives you a much clearer picture of what you need to do in the coming months.

IB predicted grades are your teachers' estimates, submitted to universities as part of your application, of the grade you will achieve in each subject at the final exams. They use the standard IB 1-7 scale, are based on real performance evidence (internal assessments, mock exams, class work), and universities use them to set the conditions of your offer.

What is a predicted grade in the IB?

The IB grades every subject on a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 is the highest. Your diploma total adds the six subject grades together with up to 3 bonus points from Theory of Knowledge and the Extended Essay, giving a maximum of 45 points and a minimum of 24 to earn the diploma. The full grading structure is set out in the IB Diploma Programme documentation (ibo.org).

Here is the diploma structure at a glance:

A predicted grade is simply your teacher's professional estimate of which number (1 to 7) you are most likely to achieve in their subject at the final examinations. Universities use these predictions to assess whether you are likely to meet their entry requirements before your actual results arrive in July (for the May session) or January (for the November session).

Predictions cover:

• Your grade in each of the six subjects (1-7 per subject)
• The grade for your Extended Essay (A-E, which feeds into the TOK/EE bonus points)
• Your TOK assessment grade (A-E)

The school's IB coordinator collates these individual predictions into an overall predicted diploma score before submitting them as part of your application.

How predicted grades work in UCAS applications

For students applying to UK universities, the process runs through UCAS, the centralised application service. Here is the typical timeline for a May session IB student:

• September to October, Year 2: You complete and submit your UCAS application, usually by the October or January deadline (Oxbridge and medicine applications have earlier deadlines; check these specifically).
• At submission: Your school attaches your predicted grades to the application.
• November onwards: Universities review your application and either reject it, make an unconditional offer (rare, usually for lower-entry-requirement courses where you already meet them), or make a conditional offer tied to achieving a certain score.
• July: Your actual results arrive. If you meet the conditions, the place is confirmed.

For international universities outside the UK, the process differs. Many use their own portals (the Common App in the US, for example) and have their own timelines and grade-submission formats. The predicted grade mechanism is similar, but you should check each university's specific requirements.

How teachers calculate your predicted grade

Predicted grades are based on evidence, not intuition. By the time you apply to university in October of Year 2, your teachers have accumulated a meaningful body of work to draw on:

Internal assessments (IAs). The IA is a coursework component every IB subject includes, worth typically 20-30% of your final grade. Many students complete or nearly complete their IA before predicted grades are submitted. A strong IA mark directly lifts what a teacher can reasonably predict.

Mock exams. Most IB schools run a full set of mock exams in September or October of Year 2, timed specifically so teachers have paper-exam evidence before predictions are due. These mocks carry significant weight because they most closely reflect final exam conditions.

Ongoing class performance. Tests, essays, presentations and verbal responses throughout Year 1 and the start of Year 2 all form part of the picture. A teacher who has seen your performance across 18 months of coursework has a solid basis for a prediction.

Progress and trajectory. A student who started Year 1 at a 4 and is now consistently producing 6-level work is likely to get a higher prediction than the trajectory of marks alone might suggest. Improvement matters, because it signals what the trajectory will be by May.

Each subject teacher makes their prediction independently. The IB coordinator reviews the overall picture and may flag anomalies (a student predicted 7 in every subject is unusual and should be scrutinised), but individual teacher judgements largely stand.

What universities do with predicted grades

A conditional offer from a UK university will typically look like one of two things:

• A total points target: for example, "38 IB Diploma points" or "36 points including the bonus points from TOK and EE."
• A subject-specific requirement: for example, "38 points overall including at least 6 in HL Biology and HL Chemistry." Subject-specific requirements are common for sciences, mathematics-heavy courses and medicine.

Once you have an offer, your predicted grades matter less than your actual grades. The offer is conditional on results, not predictions. But if your predicted grade is below what a university needs as a minimum to even consider your application, you will not receive an offer at all.

This is why it matters to understand your predicted grades before submitting your application. If a university requires 38 points and your predicted total is 33, that gap is worth discussing with your teachers and coordinator before you apply.

The maximum felt effort: performing across everything, all the time

Here is where the pressure of predicted grades becomes real. You cannot influence your predicted grade by asking for a higher number. You can only influence it by performing better in the assessments that teachers use as evidence: your IA, your mocks, your class work.

That means maintaining consistent performance across six subjects simultaneously, from the first week of Year 1 through the mocks in October of Year 2. Subject to subject, week to week. The IA deadlines, the mocks and the final exams do not wait for each other, and the topics that felt solid in Year 1 have a way of fading by the time mocks arrive if you haven't revisited them.

This is where Root genuinely helps. Root is an adaptive AI tutor built by an IB student around the IB's structure. Rather than just providing answers, Root works as two things: an adaptive tutor that learns how your brain works and which explanations click for you, and an AI manager of your revision that figures out what to study and when, so you don't have to track it yourself. On the free plan you get 60 tutor messages a week, two exam-style practice tests with per-question examiner marking, and a revision mode that finds your weak topics and brings them back until they hold. It remembers what you struggle with and gets sharper the more you use it. Here is a full breakdown of what Root does, or set up a free account and try it before your mocks.

Can you improve a predicted grade that seems too low?

You can, but the approach has to be evidence-based. Here is what actually works:

Ask the teacher directly what evidence they used. A teacher might not have your most recent essay marks, or might be using a result from a difficult test early in Year 1 when you were still finding your footing. Identifying gaps in the evidence is the first step.

Present your current work. If your recent assessments consistently show a higher level than your predicted grade, bring them to the conversation. The question is not "I think I deserve a 6" but "here is my last three assessments, all at 6 level; would you reconsider?"

Talk to your IB coordinator. If a conversation with the teacher has not resolved what you believe is an error, the coordinator is the right next step. They oversee the whole process and can mediate if there is a genuine discrepancy.

Accept that you cannot always change the outcome. Teachers make predictions in good faith based on evidence. If the evidence genuinely suggests a 5, a prediction of 7 would not be honest or, ultimately, helpful to you. A conditional offer based on an inflated prediction leads to an impossible condition.

The most reliable way to influence your predicted grade is to perform well consistently from the start of Year 1, so by October of Year 2 there is no question about what you are capable of. See how to study for the IB for the underlying method and how to build your IB revision timetable for the planning structure.

One thing many students overlook

Your Extended Essay and TOK grades each affect your predicted bonus points. These can add 0, 1, 2 or 3 points to your diploma total. For a student targeting 38 points, the difference between an A grade and a C grade in the EE and TOK could be the difference between meeting or missing the condition. Do not treat the EE and TOK as separate from your grade targets. They are worth up to 3 points that universities count.

A student predicted 35 from subject grades alone, but with a strong EE and a solid TOK, might reach a predicted total of 37 or 38. That matters when you are applying to courses with an offer at 37.

The bottom line

IB predicted grades are teacher estimates based on real evidence, submitted to universities as part of your application and used to set conditional offers. You cannot directly negotiate them, but you can improve the underlying evidence through consistent performance in IAs, mocks and class assessments. Start thinking about predicted grades early, understand what each of your target universities requires, and build your revision around the subjects and topics that are currently pulling your predicted total down.

For the study techniques that improve performance across all subjects, start with active recall and spaced repetition. For the overall IB approach, how to study for the IB covers the full method.